> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.gdeltcloud.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Worked examples

> Two real events, scored by hand, so you can check our arithmetic against the published definitions.

Each metric's own page under [Event metrics](/reference/metrics) carries worked examples for **that
metric** — several events, one number. This page does the opposite: it takes **two real events** and
scores them on **all four metrics at once**, which is where the interesting disagreements live. A
national blackout is severe, structurally important and highly propagating — and almost worthless to
a market. You only see that by reading the four together.

<Info>
  The variable names below are the sub-factors defined on each metric's own page under
  [Event metrics](/reference/metrics). Nothing here redefines them — this is the same rubric,
  applied to an instance.
</Info>

## The two events

Both are real, both are in the corpus, and they were chosen because they disagree in a useful way.

| Event                                             | Domain           | Articles |
| ------------------------------------------------- | ---------------- | -------- |
| Nationwide power grid blackout in Havana          | `INFRASTRUCTURE` | 18       |
| Anthropic's \$1.5bn copyright settlement approved | `CORPORATE`      | 15       |

***

## Magnitude — when nobody dies

> **Havana blackout**

| Sub-factor | Value    | The coder's reason                                                                                                                                                         |
| ---------- | -------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `path`     | `hazard` | No deaths, so the fatality ladder never applies — this scores on the hazard severity tier.                                                                                 |
| `value`    | 7        | A nationwide infrastructure failure left approximately 9.6 million people without electricity, halted most public transport, and cancelled tens of thousands of surgeries. |

$$
\operatorname{clamp}(t,\, 0,\, 10) = \operatorname{clamp}(7,\, 0,\, 10) = \mathbf{7.0}
$$

No deaths were reported, so the fatality-based path never applies — and the event is plainly severe.
That is what the other paths exist for. A metric that could only see deaths would score a national
grid collapse at zero.

***

## Systemic importance — a mean of three judgments

> **Anthropic settlement** · node: *Anthropic and the generative-AI copyright/licensing ecosystem*

| Variable             | Value | Coder's reason                                                                            |
| -------------------- | ----- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `size`               | 0.70  | A major AI developer; reportedly the largest known U.S. copyright settlement of its kind. |
| `interconnectedness` | 0.70  | Claims span authors, publishers, copyrighted books and AI training practice.              |
| `irreplaceability`   | 0.30  | Important, but there are competing developers and alternative licensing arrangements.     |

$$
\frac{s + i + r}{3} = \frac{0.70 + 0.70 + 0.30}{3} = \frac{1.70}{3} = \mathbf{0.57}
$$

***

## Propagation potential — and the one inverted term

> **Havana blackout**

| Variable      | Value | Coder's reason                                                                              |
| ------------- | ----- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `channel`     | 0.85  | Live operational dependency through electricity-dependent transport and medical services.   |
| `coupling`    | 0.80  | Total disconnection halted transport and cancelled surgeries immediately — almost no slack. |
| `breach`      | 0.55  | A total national grid disconnection crossed a major service-continuity threshold.           |
| `primed`      | 0.80  | Fuel shortages and a deteriorating grid were already present beforehand.                    |
| `containment` | 0.35  | Restoration protocols activated — a documented but incomplete damper.                       |

$$
\frac{c + k + b + p + (1 - m)}{5} = \frac{0.85 + 0.80 + 0.55 + 0.80 + (1 - 0.35)}{5} = \frac{3.65}{5} = \mathbf{0.73}
$$

Note `containment` enters as `(1 − 0.35)`. It is the only sub-factor anywhere in the set that
**suppresses** its metric: high containment means the event is being held, so it should lower the
chance of spread, not raise it.
[The `propagation_potential` page](/reference/metrics/propagation-potential) marks it, and this is
what that marking means in arithmetic.

***

## Market sensitivity — why a huge event scores low

> **Anthropic settlement**

| Variable         | Value | Coder's reason                                                                                      |
| ---------------- | ----- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `claim_exposure` | 0.80  | Acts directly on the company's own legal and contractual claim through a court-approved settlement. |
| `economic_bite`  | 0.80  | Approval makes a large obligation operative — cash flow and legal standing now, not later.          |

$$
\frac{e + b}{2} = \frac{0.80 + 0.80}{2} = \mathbf{0.80}
$$

> **Havana blackout**

| Variable         | Value | Coder's reason                                                                                  |
| ---------------- | ----- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| `claim_exposure` | 0.10  | No specific traded company or contract identified; exposure is generic sovereign/currency only. |
| `economic_bite`  | 0.80  | Already in force nationwide, disrupting core economic capacity.                                 |

$$
\frac{e + b}{2} = \frac{0.10 + 0.80}{2} = \mathbf{0.45}
$$

**This is the metric working, not failing.** The blackout is severe — a magnitude of 7 and a high
systemic importance — but almost nothing traded attaches to it. Market sensitivity measures
*attachment to a traded claim*, not how bad an event is. Reading it as a severity score is the single
most common mistake, which is why
[the `market_sensitivity` page](/reference/metrics/market-sensitivity) lists what it explicitly does
not claim.

***

## Reproducing this yourself

Ask for the sub-factor breakdown and the arithmetic comes back with the event:

```bash theme={null}
curl "https://gdeltcloud.com/api/v2/events?limit=1&sort=significance" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $GDELT_API_KEY"
```

If a metric comes back `null`, that is the contract working: it means the observable was not found,
never that the value is zero. Each metric's page says exactly when that happens — see
[`magnitude`](/reference/metrics/magnitude), the only one of the four whose scaler returns `NULL`.

<Card title="Limits and error bars" icon="ruler" href="/metrics/limits">
  What these numbers cannot support, and the measured noise floor.
</Card>
