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When to use

Any question that benefits from a market-implied probability anchor: “what’s the chance X happens?”, “is the market pricing in Y?”, “scenario probability for Z.”

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Default pattern: SEARCH_RELEVANT_MARKETS first

prediction_market_tool_call(
    tool_name="SEARCH_RELEVANT_MARKETS",
    tool_arguments={
        "query": "Will <plain-language scenario>?",
        "limit": 10,
        "status": "open",
        "include_history": True,
        "history_days": 14,
    }
)
Returns ranked candidate contracts with probability_yes, volume, open_interest, close_time, public_url (cite this), and a raw payload with rules_primary, yes_bid / yes_ask, and volume_24h_fp. Plus a series_matches field — broader contract series that overlap your query.

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The proxy pattern

Direct contracts on legally sensitive scenarios often don’t exist. Platforms list proxies that resolve on legible, verifiable events:
User scenarioDirect contract?Available proxy
”Will China invade Taiwan?”NoTaiwan Level-4 travel warning contracts
”Will Iran retaliate?”RareTravel warnings, sanctions designations
”Will country X default?”RarelyBond yield contracts, IMF agreement contracts
”Will company X get acquired?”SometimesM&A announcement, regulatory approval contracts
”Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire?”NoUkraine-agreement, Bank of Russia rate, Russia crude export, sanctions-relief contracts
When the user’s question matches a politically/legally restricted scenario, expect proxy contracts and report them as such. Don’t say “no relevant markets” until you’ve checked series_matches and broader search.

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Reading the response

FieldMeaning
probability_yesDecimal probability the contract resolves YES (0.46 = 46%).
volumeCumulative dollar volume traded.
open_interestLive notional held.
volume_24h_fp (in raw)Last-day volume — better activity signal than liquidity.
rules_primaryExact resolution criteria — read this before citing a probability.
The contract’s resolution criteria often differ from the user’s literal question. The implied probability is on the contract’s event, not necessarily the user’s framing.

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Known quirks

  • include_history=True is best-effort; the history array often comes back empty even when set.
  • status defaults to open. Use status='closed' for resolved markets.
  • liquidity is often 0.0000; use volume_24h_fp from raw instead.

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Other tools

  • SEARCH_EVENTS(search=…, with_nested_markets=True) — grouped event pages with nested contracts. Use when you know the event family and want term-structure-style comparisons.
  • SEARCH_MARKETS(...) — when you already have a ticker or series ticker.
  • GET_MARKET(ticker) — full record for a specific contract.

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Citation

When citing a contract:
  • Lead with the resolution question (verbatim from title).
  • Give probability as a percent and the close date.
  • Note dollar volume so the reader can weight liquidity.
  • Link the public_url.
  • If it’s a proxy, say so explicitly: “no direct contract exists; closest tradeable proxy is X.”