Range 0–1.
This is not a probability and not a forecast. It scores transmission conditions observed in the event as
reported. A high score says the routes are open and the slack is gone — not that a shock will travel them.
Formula
Two things carry the design:
channel is a gate. If no live route out exists, nothing can propagate regardless of how bad the event
is — so the score is 0 outright rather than a small positive number.containment subtracts. A damper that is already acting reduces how far a shock travels, so it
enters as (1 − containment).
Variables
Grounding
The ERCS barrier model (Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2020/2034, binding since January 2023) scores
how far a defence has been degraded rather than the probability of an outcome — that is where breach and
containment come from. Coupling and channel follow Rinaldi–Peerenboom–Kelly interdependency analysis,
used by Argonne for DHS/CISA. primed follows the ESRB’s systemic-risk framing of pre-existing stress.
Our adaptation: ERCS is applied to single financial institutions with regulatory data. We apply the same
shape — barriers, degradation, dampers — to a news event, using rubric anchors. The structure is borrowed;
the calibration is ours and is not validated against outcomes.
Worked example
Nationwide power grid blackout in Havana · INFRASTRUCTURE
Stability
Run-to-run noise ±0.029; smallest defensible difference 0.06. This metric is not validated against
downstream outcomes — see Limits. 
