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Each metric’s own page under Event metrics carries worked examples for that metric — several events, one number. This page does the opposite: it takes two real events and scores them on all four metrics at once, which is where the interesting disagreements live. A national blackout is severe, structurally important and highly propagating — and almost worthless to a market. You only see that by reading the four together.
The variable names below are the sub-factors defined on each metric’s own page under Event metrics. Nothing here redefines them — this is the same rubric, applied to an instance.

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The two events

Both are real, both are in the corpus, and they were chosen because they disagree in a useful way.

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Magnitude — when nobody dies

Havana blackout
clamp⁡(t, 0, 10)=clamp⁡(7, 0, 10)=7.0\operatorname{clamp}(t,\, 0,\, 10) = \operatorname{clamp}(7,\, 0,\, 10) = \mathbf{7.0} No deaths were reported, so the fatality-based path never applies — and the event is plainly severe. That is what the other paths exist for. A metric that could only see deaths would score a national grid collapse at zero.

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Systemic importance — a mean of three judgments

Anthropic settlement · node: Anthropic and the generative-AI copyright/licensing ecosystem
s+i+r3=0.70+0.70+0.303=1.703=0.57\frac{s + i + r}{3} = \frac{0.70 + 0.70 + 0.30}{3} = \frac{1.70}{3} = \mathbf{0.57}

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Propagation potential — and the one inverted term

Havana blackout
c+k+b+p+(1−m)5=0.85+0.80+0.55+0.80+(1−0.35)5=3.655=0.73\frac{c + k + b + p + (1 - m)}{5} = \frac{0.85 + 0.80 + 0.55 + 0.80 + (1 - 0.35)}{5} = \frac{3.65}{5} = \mathbf{0.73} Note containment enters as (1 − 0.35). It is the only sub-factor anywhere in the set that suppresses its metric: high containment means the event is being held, so it should lower the chance of spread, not raise it. The propagation_potential page marks it, and this is what that marking means in arithmetic.

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Market sensitivity — why a huge event scores low

Anthropic settlement
e+b2=0.80+0.802=0.80\frac{e + b}{2} = \frac{0.80 + 0.80}{2} = \mathbf{0.80}
Havana blackout
e+b2=0.10+0.802=0.45\frac{e + b}{2} = \frac{0.10 + 0.80}{2} = \mathbf{0.45} This is the metric working, not failing. The blackout is severe — a magnitude of 7 and a high systemic importance — but almost nothing traded attaches to it. Market sensitivity measures attachment to a traded claim, not how bad an event is. Reading it as a severity score is the single most common mistake, which is why the market_sensitivity page lists what it explicitly does not claim.

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Reproducing this yourself

Ask for the sub-factor breakdown and the arithmetic comes back with the event:
If a metric comes back null, that is the contract working: it means the observable was not found, never that the value is zero. Each metric’s page says exactly when that happens — see magnitude, the only one of the four whose scaler returns NULL.

Limits and error bars

What these numbers cannot support, and the measured noise floor.