Event metric reference

Every event we code carries a set of numbers. These pages are generated from the definitions the coder and the scaler both import, so the formula below is the formula that produced the value in your response. This page is the index: the design rule, significance in full, and one summary per metric. Each of the four scored metrics has its own page with its sub-factors, its NULL rule and what it does not claim. What applies to all four is on Limits and error bars. Metric contract version: v2-2026-07-24, carried on each event as metric_version. Events coded before it carry an empty value and were scored on an earlier scale — do not compare the two.

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The design rule

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significance

The one number that ranks events. The default sort on GET /api/v2/events, and the only metric intended to compare events across domains. It is a weighted blend, renormalized by the maximum its family can actually reach — without that denominator a maxed global pandemic is structurally out-ranked by any moderately lethal clash. Reachable maximum per family — the renormalization denominator, derived from the weights above. A term that cannot fire for a family contributes nothing and its weight leaves that family’s denominator. The one exception worth knowing: when magnitude is unmeasured its term and its weight both drop, which is arithmetically identical to imputing the other metrics into the magnitude slot. See what magnitude does not claim.

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magnitude

Intensity WITHIN this event’s own domain (0-10). Range 0–10, published for the cameoplus family only. Filter with magnitude_min / magnitude_max. $$\text{magnitude} = \begin{cases} 0 & \text{conflict},\; d = 0 \\[4pt] \min\!\bigl(10,\; 2 + 2\log_{10} d\bigr) & \text{conflict},\; d > 0 \\[4pt] \operatorname{clamp}(t,\, 0,\, 10) & \text{hazard, verbal, economic} \end{cases}$$ What it is for, the sub-factors the coder scores, when it is NULL →

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systemic_importance

How much the wider system DEPENDS ON THE NODE this event touches (Basel G-SIB style), 0-1. Range 0–1, published for the cameoplus family only. Filter with systemic_importance_min / systemic_importance_max. $$\text{systemic\_importance} = \frac{s + i + r}{3}$$ What it is for, the sub-factors the coder scores, when it is NULL →

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propagation_potential

The CONDITIONS that let a shock travel, 0-1. Range 0–1, published for the cameoplus family only. Filter with propagation_potential_min / propagation_potential_max. $$\text{propagation\_potential} = \begin{cases} 0 & c \le 0.05 \\[4pt] \dfrac{c + k + b + p + (1 - m)}{5} & c > 0.05 \end{cases}$$ What it is for, the sub-factors the coder scores, when it is NULL →

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market_sensitivity

How much market-relevant information this carries for a REASONABLE INVESTOR (the securities-disclosure materiality test) — NOT a predicted price move. Range 0–1, published for the cameoplus family only. Filter with market_sensitivity_min / market_sensitivity_max. $$\text{market\_sensitivity} = \begin{cases} 0 & e \le 0.05 \\[4pt] \dfrac{e + b}{2} & e > 0.05 \end{cases}$$ What it is for, the sub-factors the coder scores, when it is NULL →

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Why some metrics are exactly 0

Two metrics can be gated to exactly 0 regardless of their other sub-factors: propagation_potential when channel ≤ 0.05, and market_sensitivity when claim_exposure ≤ 0.05. Read that 0 as a value, not a missing reading: it says the event is self-contained, or that nothing traded is exposed, however dramatic the event is. Unknown is represented by the metric being absent, never by a 0.

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Every filterable metric field

GET /api/v2/events accepts a _min/_max pair for each of the 8 fields below. Four of them are full metric definitions with a published formula, each on its own page; the rest are stored properties of the coded event.

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Stored fields

These carry no published formula — they are properties the coder stamped on the event, filterable on the same _min/_max pattern.

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confidence

Confidence — range 0–1, published for both families.

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goldstein_scale

Goldstein scale — range -10–10, published for both families.

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geo_precision

Geo precision — range 1–3, published for both families.