What it is for
- Filtering an event feed down to what plausibly attaches to a traded claim — a contract, an obligation, a specific issuer.
- Separating market-relevant news from severe-but-unattached news, which is the distinction a headline volume count cannot make.
- Building an alert that fires on economic consequence rather than on drama.
- Reading a LOW score on a severe event as informative, not as a failure — see the worked examples.
Filter on it
market_sensitivity_min and market_sensitivity_max on GET /api/v2/events, range 0–1. Published only for the cameoplus family — filtering on it excludes every event outside that family.
Formula
Every sub-factor is clamped to its stated range before it enters the equation, and the result is rounded to 2 decimal places. Reproducing a served value needs both.
What the coder scores
The coder reads these off the article and records a reason for each. The scaler above turns them into the value — nothing else feeds it.claim_exposure
Gate — at or below 0.05 the whole metric is 0 regardless of the other sub-factors.
The exact text the coder receives
The exact text the coder receives
THE NAMING LADDER. ONE question: what is the SMALLEST existing claim this event acts on that YOU CAN NAME FROM THE ARTICLE? Each rung is a different answer to that one question, so exactly one fits. Take the HIGHEST rung whose test you can actually pass; you may not skip a rung you cannot pass. A claim is broader than a listed share: a listed parent counts (Taco Bell -> Yum! Brands); so do sovereign debt and currencies, exchange-traded commodities, CREDIT AND CONTRACTUAL claims (bankruptcy and litigation claims, an asset freeze, insurance exposure, a large supply contract), and a MAJOR PRIVATE COMPANY with a real claim (active secondary market, private-credit exposure, or a listed backer). Two checks before answering. (1) NAME IT OR DROP A RUNG — 0.35 requires naming the aggregate, 0.60/0.80/1.00 require naming the one claim (an issuer, borrower or counterparty, or one exchange-traded instrument); a
why containing “not named”, “not identified”, “unnamed” or “no specific claim” is the reason for a LOWER rung. (2) DO NOT CONSTRUCT A CLAIM THE ARTICLE DOES NOT NAME — an insurer that must exist because a loss was insured, a supplier that must exist because a product is short, an industry that must exist because the victim worked in it: none is a named claim. And a named BODY is not automatically a named claim — a ministry, agency, municipality, municipal utility, public hospital, court or state broadcaster carries no traded claim of its own, so naming one leaves you on 0.10 unless the article states it has traded debt, a traded parent, or a claim held against it.economic_bite
The exact text the coder receives
The exact text the coder receives
THE DISTANCE LADDER. ★ THE CLAIM NAMED IN
claim_exposure IS THE SUBJECT OF THIS SENTENCE — this asks what has ALREADY happened TO THAT CLAIM, not how dramatic, violent, tragic or costly the event was. Value taken, destroyed or lost BY the event is not a bite unless the thing taken IS the exposed claim. When claim_exposure is 0.10 the only claim in play is the country’s debt, currency or index, so absent a nameable sovereign-level act (default, devaluation, capital controls, a rating action) the bite is 0.00-0.20. ONE axis: how far has this travelled from words to a changed claim? Do NOT forecast, do NOT estimate a price move, and do NOT reason about what investors expected or whether it was priced in. “Economics” = cash flows, output or capacity, assets, contracts, licences and legal obligations, or access to and cost of financing.The frameworks it adapts
The reasonable-investor materiality test
What we take from it. The question itself — whether there is a substantial likelihood a reasonable shareholder would consider this important, judged on the information available now and BEFORE any price move exists to measure. TSC Industries v. Northway, 426 U.S. 438 (1976). In current use by the SEC’s cybersecurity disclosure rule, which makes an issuer apply exactly this test to a non-financial incident on a four-day clock with no price data — Form 8-K Item 1.05.The full citation trail
The reasonable-investor materiality test, the question a disclosure lawyer answers while reading a document, before any price move exists to measure — TSC Industries v. Northway, 426 U.S. 438 (1976) (“substantial likelihood that a reasonable shareholder would consider it important”; “significantly altered the ‘total mix’”); Basic Inc. v. Levinson, 485 U.S. 224 (1988); SEC SAB 99 (1999) and the 2023 cyber-disclosure rule (Form 8-K Item 1.05), where an issuer must judge a non-financial incident’s materiality on a four-day clock with no price data — our exact situation; MAR (EU 596/2014) Art. 7(4) and ESMA (“appraise on the basis of the ex ante available information”); ASX Listing Rule 3.1 / Guidance Note 8; IFRS S1 and IFRS Practice Statement 2; and CJEU Lafonta v AMF, C-628/13 (2015), which holds that information can be “precise” WITHOUT indicating the direction of the price change — that is what authorises an unsigned score. We ADAPT the structure and vocabulary of these frameworks. None of the bodies named endorses, reviews, or is connected to this metric, and their use does not make our values empirical measurements.Worked examples
Real events from the corpus, scored by the coder and frozen here on 2026-08-19 — check the arithmetic against the formula above. They are snapshots, not live lookups: an event can be re-coded, and an example that changed underneath its own arithmetic would be worse than none.Britain seizes Russian tanker Smyrtos in English Channel
United Kingdom · 2026-08-13 Near the top of both ladders. One named thing is the subject of the act, and what happened to it changed what it legally is.market_sensitivity = 0.9 — what GET /api/v2/events returns for this event.
Vessel owners reduce Strait of Hormuz traffic amid standoff
Iran · 2026-08-11 The reading people misread. A chokepoint carrying a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil scores 0.38 — because no single traded claim is named. It is the priced aggregate rung, not the named-claim rung. High systemic importance, modest market sensitivity: that is the metric working.market_sensitivity = 0.38 — what GET /api/v2/events returns for this event.
Prague decides fate of Stalin Center: ban, end or continued operation
Czech Republic · 2026-08-14 The gate overriding a non-zero bite.economic_bite is 0.40 — something real happened — but claim_exposure is 0, so nothing traded is exposed and the answer is 0. Averaging the two would have invented a 0.20.
market_sensitivity = 0 — what GET /api/v2/events returns for this event.
When it is NULL
Never null. A gated 0 is the TRUE value — “nothing traded is exposed” — not an unknown. Instead the metric is ABSENT from the response entirely, in two cases: a conflict-family event (the four CAMEO+ metrics are omitted rather than returned as 0, because a 0 would assert “measured, and it is the minimum”), and an event coded before the v2-2026-07-24 contract.
What this number does not claim
What this number does not claim
These are the readings the definition does not support — building on one of them is building on a promise nobody made.
- NOT a predicted price move, NOT a probability, NOT an expected return, and NOT a magnitude of market reaction. It is how much market-relevant INFORMATION the event carries for a reasonable investor. The field name oversells the construct; treat the value as an ordinal ranking signal.
- NOT signed and NOT directional. It cannot tell you whether the world got better or worse — CJEU Lafonta v AMF (C-628/13, 2015) is precisely the authority for scoring materiality without a direction. Direction is
goldstein_scale’s job, not this metric’s. - NOT a severity score. It measures how directly the event attaches to a claim that already exists, which is why a national blackout scores low here and high on everything else. Reading it as severity is the single most common mistake made with these metrics.
- A 0 is NOT unknown.
claim_exposure ≤ 0.05means nothing traded is exposed, so 0 is the TRUE value.